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Dennis Avery biography
- Won national achievement award
- Went to university of wisconsin
Topics:
Barbara: I saw on the history channel a special on the little ice age.
It's really a triumph of modern public relations that Americans have been taught to be afraid of warm sunny weather. There was warming in Roman times, and in medieval times. Most of the cathedrals in europe, and carved temples, were built during warm times when there was plenty of food, and people were grateful.
No one before has had a long sweep of earths temperature. These cycles are very small changes, 2 degrees, and very long 700-800 years. Even the viking sagas didnt understand the climate change that doomed their colonies after 400 years of success. The climate changed and no one expected it.
Barbara: I remember history class talked about a group like the vikings, then stopped, talked about another group, then stopped. There was no linkage between them.
Until recently we didn't have the linkage until we got really deep continuous cores of ice. This is drilled like with oil drilling technology. You use an electronic microscope to assess the ratio of oxygen 18 and oxygen 16 tells you the temperature when the ice is layed down.
Sea cores look at the fossils of tiny one cell organisms. The species and counts, tells us the temperature when the sediment was laid down. In cave stalactites, the variation in minerals tells us. And the North American Pollen Database, which has all the fossil pollen. The fossil pollen tells us we've had 9 complete reorganizations of our plants in the last 14,000 years.
Some of the evidence just pops out at you. The US Forest Service survey: Survey in lake tahoe, of trees killed in 1350 by a local volcanic explosion. 7 species growing higher on the mountain higher, indicated the temperatures were 3 degrees higher than today.
Our total net warming has been 0.7 degree celsius. Even since 1840 has only been 0.2 of a degree celsius.
Barbara: Why are people so upset then?
Research organizations have said be afraid of this, runaway warming. If were were on TV I could show you the temperatures for the last 150 years graphed against CO2, and there is no correlation. But graphed against sun spots the correlation is striking. In the last 8 years, we haven't any sunspots, and no correlation between temperature and that CO2 graph.
Barbara: The media don't talk about the effect of the sun on this planet. I think there is an effect from the sun shining. There is an effect very simplistically. didn't they just discover something new about the sun surface, from a japanese telescope?
We're just learning. We used to think the sun was a constant to 8 decimal places. Now we find there is a tenth of a degree difference. They filled a reaction chamber and let ultraviolet shine on it, and cosmic rays coming through the walls of the building, and sulphur and water droplets were created, which are the seeds of clouds.
Barbara: What caused Mars to change? no SUV there!
Researchers are saying the sun is now the most active it has been in a thousand years. The coldest part of the current 1500 year cycle was 1700.
One of my favorite bits of news: Sudden ocean cooling. We dont have good temperature history on the ocean, which covers 70% of the surface. We've now put out smart bouys that can measure temperature down to 700 feet, and the data came in, and shows we've had a sudden cooling between 2003 and 2005. They lost 30% of the heat they'd gained. The computer models don't accomodate it. The biosphere doesn't contain it. NOA now says it escaped into space. They thought they'd seen a similar cooling between 1980 and 1983, so we've had two of these in 30 years. This means the climate models are helpless. The oceans hold 1000 times as much heat as the atmosphere.
Break
Barbara: Why are we not capable of adapting to the predicted changes?
During the little Ice Ages, Britain started with 5.5 million people, all who had accumulated during the previous warming. The population dropped to 1.5 million after crop failures. It forced Britain to adopt modern agriculture. They learned if they planted some hedges, and rotated crops and cattle, the yields went up dramatically.
Barbara: If manure was ok then, why is it not ok now?
If the choice was a famine, or an occassionally ecoli infection, the choice was food first.
Barbara: We probably had more food problems then.
They were feeding 1.5 million people. They invented modern agriculture, then they were feeding 15 million people, and by today they are feeding 60 million people, through the use of science and technology.
Barbara: What about the gloom and doom people who predict all of dying?
Plants love sunshine, gentle warming. Global warming gives plants everything they want, including CO2 fertilization. 30-50% increase in plant productivity. There is no reason to expect famine, but reason to expect draught. California had two century long draughts during the medieval times. But we have trains, ships, we can transport food. We can desalinate sea water, recycle waste water, we can do all kinds of things that were impossible two hundred to three hundred years ago.
Barbara: What about the immigration cycles. Someone told me that California had border guards where people weren't allowed to come into the state, to keep the Oki's ought.
It's true.
We have had droughts, but we weren't using fertilizer. The crops were hit by drought, and lack of nutritients. So the dust swept away.
Now we have no till farming, you stick a slit in the soil, put in the soil, with the crop residue in place. You have twice as much soil moisture than before. We're better equipped to feed ourselves in a drought, and biotechnology is finding that drought resistance is easy to add.
Egyptian researchers took a gene from barley and put in wheat, and they now have a wheat that only requires one watering during it's growing, it can be grown on a near desert. Farm it in no till farming, you save the moisture, and you're not out of business.
Caller: Question related to ice cores. In our daily life we encounter varying temperatures. How is it we can take ice cores, and look at a temperature when it froze, and gather data on the full earth when the ice was gathered from just one place.
The ice cores showing the 1500 cycle were found in new zealand, and in the vostok glacer. And the same 1500 year cycle, the same correlation between the greenland and antarctic cycle. We've now found the correlation in 6 oceans, 100's of lakes, stagmites and stalactites, simultaneous glacial advances and retreats all over the earth, coupled with ancient records from china, rome, and cherry blossom viewing from japanese nobles.
Barbara: Al Gore is running with the attention. George Norey is putting together a program to get people from both sides of the issue. He can get the people who say we are making a big deal out of something, and the end of the world people. But the end of the world people will only do the program if they are the only ones.
The end of the world people with Al Gore have a big problem.
600 warmings in the last million years. 70% of the current wamring occuring before 1940, whereaas 70% of the CO2 occured after 1940. The situation for the alarmists is so bad that the UN climate control panel has lied in major ways. In 1996 they claimed that a human fingerprint had been found in the core data, but this lie was revealed by the president of the National Academy of Science
The hockey stick problem: Claim of 900 years of stable weather and no tree ring data about warming.
But there are a million documents and studies confirm the little ice age and the middle ages warming. When the deniers were asked for their data, they had nothing to offer.
This study was so important, it was mailed to every family in Canada by the Canadian government, but it was a fraud, a lie!
Barbara: When we come back, lets talk about the purpose of the lies, and the push for renewable energy, to change the way we drive, to change the electricity we use.
Phone number: 808-5600
Break
Barbara: Is it going to happen no matter what we do?
Yes. There may be a small element of human impact. 70% of warming happened before 1940, and 70% of CO2 happened after 1940.
Remember the impact for CO2 declines logarithmically. We've already used up the most important years of CO2 emission. I don't think he can scare children with declining impact.
Barbara: He can scare people with polar bears floating on icebergs
Polar bears are a close relative of grizzly bears. They'll handle eating the seal when they come to sleep on the beach.
Barbara: What about our use of oil, cars, and incandescent light bulbs.
I want to talk about the problem of corn ethanol. It gives us a net yield of 50 gallons of gasoline per acre per year. How many acres of forest do we need to clear to grow ethanol for fuel? We use all our corn for feed and food. There is no way to produce enough ethanol from corn to make any progress on energy nonsense.
In canada in alberta, they have 2.5 trillion barrels of oil in the tar sends. If we're worried, lets give alberta an oil pipeline.
Barabra: They don't want oil.
They don't want nuclear, oil, gas, hydroelectric dams. They are sueing to stop geothermal, no CO2, no waste. They are located close to the Bonneville power grid, they are only 9 acres.
Barbara: When they want to stop it, they take it to the courts.
They are stopping all the energy. All of it.
The campaign against energy is a way to stop the modern world.
Barbara: They don't care about china.
They are trying to stop china too.
The yields from an organic farm are half that of regular farming because the farmer has to grow his own nitrogen. And half the human population would have to be gotten rid of.
Caller: Look at the kyoto treaty, we have carbon credits, so the third world who don't have factories can trade the right to pollute, so it's a transfer of money to the third world dictators. I wanted to comment on CO2 credits.
Barbara: It's not surprising, it's a way to transfer money and right to pollute.
Vladimir Putin will get billions of dollars, and the CO2 isn't reduced, no reduction in greenhouse.
Barbara: And they get these billions by taxing the people.
That's right.
Caller: Fuel cell powered bus - Most of the heat energy in the atmosphere is in water. Wouldn't that increase the problem?
More water vapor goes into the air, but it goes back down in rain, without energy to hold it in suspension in the air. That probably is the reason the greenhouse theory is not being born out, we're having radically less warming than the greenhouse effect told us to effect.
Barbara: what will happen?
We will have 1500 year cycle, plus or minue 500 years. We need to look at the sunspot cycles to see what is coming, and the ups and downs in the temperature. All these warmings are in the sunspot record.
We haven't had continuing higher temperatures in the sunspots for the last 8 years. The sunspot record is turning out to be more accurate than the CO2 record.
Barbara: Is it going to get hotter or colder?
It's going to vary!
Barbara: Laughter. Then I just go home because I can't do anything about it.
Which 10% of your energy are you going to keep? I have a wood burning stove, so I can probably also have a moped.
Barbara: You aren't allowed to have fireplaces in the bay area.
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